GOLD PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATE ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE INDEX IN TURKEY

Abstract

In addition to the past and present information, economic units act by taking into account the foreseen and unpredictable situations that may arise in the future. The estimation of possible changes determines the consistency of forward-looking decisions. Including expectations in decision-making behaviors increases the weight of expectations in economic policies.While the expectations were affected by economic variables such as price-tax-growth; on the other hand, it is affected by non-economic variables such as seasonality, weather conditions, and political conditions. Geographical boundaries and distances disappear in the globalizing world, and the level of influence of the national economies increases. The speed and size of the financial capital, which has reached 500 trillion dollars, can change the balances in the world economy. Investors in the decision-making process, the theoretical possibility of the relationship between confidence and investment instruments, gold prices and the dollar exchange rate between us with economic confidence index for Turkey was pushed to do this work. For the period of 2007-2019, the monthly average of the CBRT bullion gold prices for gold prices, the monthly average of the CBRT dollar sales prices and the TurkStat economic confidence index were used. With the ADF and PP unit root test, Granger Causality Test was applied for the short term and the Johansen Cointegration Test for the long term.