AN OVERVIEW OF FORECASTING METHODS: AN APPLICATION FOR AN APPAREL-TEXTILE FIRM IN THE PRODUCTION SECTOR

Abstract

The forecasting events are the art and the science. Early humans forecast the available food before considering where to choose on a specific day, and before deciding whether or not to invade a area, the Romans predict the strength of the armies. Today farmers predict the weather before deciding whether or not to plant a particular day and before deciding about their schedules for a semester students predict the difficulty of the courses. Demand forecasting is critical as it leads from the preparation, staff, development and procurement of materials through to promotion and delivery across other areas of a organization. Far from forecasting demand, activities, commodity shortages, excess inventories and late deliveries can contribute to over or understaffing. In comparison, accurate market forecasts will result in goods being launched in good time, factories can be opened up and their revenues will rise. Organizations predict many different phenomenons, including interest rates, market share and prices, than product requirements. The basic goal of estimating demand is to make good determinations-forecasting about the company's future. Various forecasting methods and models are suggested within the scope of the study, and literature studies are presented. This research discusses these issues: demand projections, the monitoring mechanism for sales forecasts and a viewpoint on how estimates are produced and calculated. For the application of the study, the forecasting models are applied for the textile-apparel firm (ABC Company) and these models are compared according to the measures of Accuracy. The most convenientappropriate forecasting method-model was developed for volume of sales of ABC company-plant. It is investigated how the sales forecastings (volume of products) made for the company affect the inventory level and costs. In this way, forecastings are made in terms of directing the business plan and mission for the future of the company. ABC Apparel company is having frequent introductions of new products as it produces fashionbased wears. Although they can forecast the total sales, these frequent introductions reduce the lifetime of the products and make it difficult to predict at product level. According to this issue, the aim of this research is to find out a method for forecastin model and implementing it to the firm